Posted October 15, 2020
Kansas farmers are just finishing planting and watching their 2021 wheat crop emerge, but world buyers are already highly anticipating next summer’s harvest. Each month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) keeps producers and end-users alike up-to-date on the latest projections for U.S. and global wheat production, use, exports and stocks in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Situation (WASDE) report.
The WASDE report provides a month-to-month overview of global agricultural trade with updated estimates as weather events unfold and crops in both the United States and abroad emerge, mature and are harvested. The report provides valuable insights into the supply and demand factors that influence the price of wheat.
In the latest report issued on Friday, Oct. 9, USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2020/2021 marketing year will decrease five percent year-over-year to 49.7 million metric tons, equivalent to 1.83 billion bushels, due to lower average yields and decreased planting area. In comparison, production in competing countries like Russia and Canada are expected to see substantial increases from the five-year average. Despite this decline, USDA expects U.S. wheat exports to reach 973.7 million bushels (26.5 MMT), up slightly from last year and the five-year average.
USDA projected hard red winter (HRW) production to hit 657.7 million bushels (17.9 MMT) this year. HRW exports were estimated at 411.5 million bushels (11.2 MMT), with commercial sales of 197.9 million bushels (5.387 MMT) already booked as of October 1. Mexico remains the top customer for U.S. HRW at 40.1 million bushels (1.09 MMT), followed by China, Nigeria and Japan.
To follow along as the marketing year continues, U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) provides both a weekly report on commercial sales and a visual rundown of the organization’s analysis of the WASDE report.
“A crucial part of building overseas demand for U.S. wheat is providing information about the global supply and demand situation,” said Steve Mercer, USW vice president of communications. “Every month USW creates a graphic representation of the WASDE report on wheat and add information that the world's wheat buyers can reference quickly. This is a part of the trade service we provide to increase the value and competitiveness of U.S. wheat.”
The Kansas Wheat Commission is a member of USW, which combines funding from 19 state wheat commissions and cost-share grants from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). As the wheat industry’s export market development organization, USW promotes the reliability, quality and value of all six U.S. wheat classes to wheat buyers, millers, bakers, food processors and government officials in more than 100 countries around the world.
Follow USW’s reporting on worldwide supply and demand at https://www.uswheat.org/market-and-crop-information/supply-and-demand/, and check out a new interactive map of the U.S. wheat supply chain at https://bit.ly/USWheatExportSupplyChain.
Written by Julia Debes for Kansas Wheat